I was about to describe the intelligence technology we use in crisis management, but I suddenly realized that one important topic may remain untouched and undisclosed.
Have you ever wondered what the fundamental difference is between “investigation”
and “research”? Which is easier and which is harder, where the path is much
shorter? The topic may not seem serious, but it is very important! It has a
significant impact on better matching and subsequent recruitment and selection
of candidates for intelligence work.
You remember one of the key requirements of intelligence where - the tasks to be solved determine their specific performers, not vice versa. This allows the tasks themselves to be solved more quickly, completely and effectively. In a word – “creativity” rules the process.
So, we'll start with an “investigation”...
Let's imagine that some criminal or accidental precedent has occurred!
No matter in what sphere, where and when, we are considering a hypothetical
case of an accident.
An incident has occurred! We start investigating and, first of all, we
start gathering information (remember this is important), and we already have
on hand:
·
The fact itself
is the event or occurrence;
·
Visible or invisible damage;
·
Place and time of the event;
·
Whether something like this has already happened or
whether this event was an accident;
·
The likely direct participants in the event (if they
have not fled);
·
Accidental or non-accidental witnesses to the accident
(eyewitnesses);
·
Various material and non-material traces of the
incident (opened containers, traces of the accident, signs of arson, vehicle
brake marks, what was stolen/destroyed, etc.) that already allow us to draw
some conclusions.
By the way, the goals of the investigation may be different, but, as a
rule, much of the above will be available to you! You have an idea of what to
look for, where and who to look for, who may be, one way or another connected
with the event, finally, following the Roman principle “Look for who benefits”,
you can outline a potential circle of suspects.
This is what you are dealing with when you start and investigate an
incident. Not everything is listed here, of course. There will probably be
information on similar or similar events, personal motives if they are found in
the case (revenge, animosity, etc.). All this will also help the investigator
who wants to get to the truth.
So, you got something to work with?
And now, let's imagine that none of the things described above exist –
at all! Now, we have before us a case of pure “research”! Applied to crisis
management:
No event has NOT happened yet!
There is no event, no place where it happened, no traces of the event,
no witnesses and eyewitnesses, and finally, there are no, even hypothetical, persons
interested in the incident! In your field of activity, nothing similar or
analogous has ever happened.
What is there? The only thing available so far is a list of hypothetical
risks that are likely and possible! This is, of course, only if you are prudent
and have made such predictions.
How's it going? Ready to get down to business? You have to detect
something that hasn't happened yet! And not only to detect, but also to take
concrete measures to minimize the consequences of what is happening, in case
the risk itself actually occurs.
What is “Risk”? It is not an event, or rather, it is a forecast of an
event that may occur and be realized in the future, but may not occur at all,
if there are not some phenomena/events that contribute to the maturation and
realization of risk in the current reality. Intelligence knows how to work with
such objects!
Crisis management always arises at the moment of making or not making a “Decision”
about further actions and operates throughout the practical realization of the
decisions made (or from something not made).
As can be seen even from our hypothetical example, “investigation” is a
predominantly “reactive” course of action, arising as a reaction to some event
that has already occurred.
While “research”, in crisis management, is a proactive course of action
aimed at pre-empting events that have not yet occurred.
When you are recruiting for your commercial intelligence team, there is
nothing to stop you from conducting selection tests and, for example, asking
potential candidates to write a short essay or answer this, already discussed
question - how and how do they think “investigation” differs from “research”
and where is the greater complexity present?
After all, when we begin to train intelligence analysts or operatives,
we start by telling them what “information” is, because in the future they will
have to work with information and its sources.
By the way, during selection tests, you will usually see at once which
of the potential candidates can think and express their thoughts and opinions
clearly, and who can't. Select for the job - creative and smart!
The practical tasks of crisis management are fairly straightforward:
·
Tracking
already predicted risks;
·
Identifying and
setting real risks that have a high probability and potential for realization;
·
Promptly
informing management of impending risks;
·
Accompaniment
(monitoring), in informational terms, of the occurred risks, for deeper
understanding of the scenario of development of real events;
·
Accompaniment (monitoring) of risk until the risk
loses its significance or conditions for its practical realization disappear;
the whole difficulty is
that we're looking for something that doesn't exist yet and that has to be
taken into account.
The main purpose of crisis management is to “keep management informed”
and nothing more! If management for one reason or another is not interested and
does not want to be aware of current and developing risks - do NOT even try to
create an intelligence unit. Your efforts will never be appreciated and your
information will simply be neglected and disregarded! Value your own time, effort and knowledge.
The following article will describe how an “exploration plan” is made.
We search for the non-existent according to a schedule and some set parameters
that are fairly easy to control. You're in favor of controlled exploration,
right? Don't miss out!
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