Wednesday, May 29, 2024

A narrative about a simple thing

 or the nature and content of commercial intelligence work and why it works the way it does

Note:

How to use this cheat sheet? Read the note. If you're not hooked, then maybe it's just not your thing. Drop the case. It's not worth wasting your time and energy.

If you are interested, but not before! If you want to understand and implement the system in your business or company, I recommend downloading the guide at the link. It's pretty comprehensive. Anyway, I tried to create a guide that allows you to deploy the system from scratch. If you have any questions, I'm open to discussion.

 I apologize wildly for my English again. It's not perfect, but it's not my native language either.

You can download a “practical guide” to commercial intelligence absolutely free of charge here:

“Hunting black swans”

or ask any question you may have here:

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There is a famous saying by Albert Einstein:

“If you can't explain something to a 6-year-old, you don't understand it yourself.”

I will take the liberty of outlining the essence and practical content of intelligence activities in commercial intelligence.

         So, as you already know from the previous post: the practical task of intelligence in business is to manifest and clarify information uncertainty, in order to improve the management efficiency of a commercial company. (you can read about it here)

How can this task be solved? By informing, or rather, by informing as thoroughly and accurately as possible! Nothing more practical has yet been invented by mankind.

Who defines intelligence objectives, what to study and who to inform? Company management! There is a misconception that intelligence is looking for its own objects of study. This is not quite true! The key objects of study of the commercial intelligence system are assigned by its general customer - the company's management. The exception to this rule is operational risks (readabout them in our guide). Their detection and identification lies to a greater extent on the commercial intelligence system itself.

Who defines intelligence objectives, what to study and who to inform? Company management! There is a misconception that intelligence is looking for its own objects of study. This is not quite true! The key objects of study of the commercial intelligence system are assigned by its general customer - the company's management. The exception to this rule is operational risks (read about them in our guide). Their detection and identification lies to a greater extent on the commercial intelligence system itself.

How commercial intelligence goals and objectives are defined and assigned will be discussed in more detail in future materials. There are a few important nuances to keep in mind, which are discussed at special “Strategy Sessions” held in the interest of practical organization of commercial intelligence of the company.

Having received research tasks from the “customer”, the commercial intelligence system begins its “work cycle”. It needs to be practically realized:

1)      Tracking (monitoring) of identified risks;

2)      Determining the likelihood of the risk being realized (actually materializing) in real time;

3)      Informing about what happened and the development of the situation, in case the risk is realized;

4)      Accompanying (observing) the risk to understand the scenario of the real development of events and informing about it;

5)      Accompaniment (monitoring) of risk until the risk loses its significance or conditions for its realization disappear;

6)      Informing about the loss of relevance of the risk.

Let's dwell a little more on this list of works. Otherwise, you may miss some important nuances.

So!

·         Tracking (monitoring) of identified risks;

Intelligence looks for and monitors risks that have not yet occurred at this point in time! If it were otherwise, it would mean that the company is already operating under the conditions of a realized risk. The task of intelligence is to be proactive, proactive, until the moment when the risk is realized in real time. Can this be done and how?

Yes! This is a very real task. We do not monitor the risks themselves, since they do not yet exist in reality, but the so-called “intelligence indicators” (traces) of probable risks. By the way, identification and development of real “intelligence indicators” is also an intelligence task not mentioned here. (you can read about it here)

·         Determining the likelihood of the risk being realized (actually materializing) in real time;

Since we are talking about information uncertainty, the future risk may arise and be realized, or may not arise at all. We do not know the entire sum of factors, conditions and circumstances that are guaranteed to lead to the practical realization of the risk.

In real time, by monitoring traces (“intelligence indicators”) and as they accumulate, we can draw conclusions about the increasing probability of the risk realization (which has not yet occurred). When some probability threshold is passed, the actual realization of the risk becomes very high.

·         Informing about what happened and the development of the situation, in case the risk is realized;

It is at this stage that the company's management should be informed. That is, the risk has not yet occurred or materialized, there is only a high probability of realization, but the intelligence gives the company a chance to react proactively.

·         Accompanying (observing) the risk to understand the scenario of the real development of events and informing about it;

As practice shows, the risk identified and predicted in advance, quite rarely develops according to the scenario that was considered in its forecasting. Information uncertainty is: unaccounted for accidents, new events and phenomena, which, among other things, could not be foreseen and predicted in advance at the stage of risk identification.

It is necessary to track (monitor) the realized risk in order to clarify the scenario of its development and make adjustments in the processes of adequate response to the risk.

·         Accompaniment (monitoring) of risk until the risk loses its significance or conditions for its realization disappear;

Until when does a risk remain relevant? There are several situations in which we can talk about the loss of relevance of the risk. For example, the risk has ceased to have a significant impact on the company's business, either on its own or as a result of measures taken to minimize it; conditions and circumstances for its further development and growth have disappeared, etc.

All of this is subject to real-time tracking (monitoring).

·         Informing about the loss of relevance of the risk.

When a risk becomes irrelevant, management should be notified.

There is another situation that occurs quite often. According to the totality of accumulated intelligence indicators, the probability of risk realization has long exceeded 100%, but the risk does not occur! Why? So, informational uncertainty! Multivariance of events and you do not know why! In this case, the relevance of the risk remains, which does not prevent the company from taking proactive measures to minimize the risk and its consequences.

Now you have a better understanding of the nature and content of intelligence work in business. To oversimplify: you need to track the risk and inform management. This should preferably be done BEFORE the risk is realized, giving the company a chance to react proactively.

Yes! And did you notice that I wrote almost nothing about the response itself and the preventive measures taken to minimize the impact of the risk? The point is that this is not an intelligence task!

Responding to a risk is the task of the units whose activity may be specifically affected by the risk!

During the Cold War, yes, yes last century, Reagan/Gorbachev, I was a young officer in a special intelligence unit. We stood on the border between East and West Germany. If the Cold War began to escalate into a Hot War, my unit's mission was to reconnoiter nuclear artillery positions and operational nuclear Lance (MGM-52) and Pershing (MGM-31A) missiles.

My unit was NOT tasked with destroying the detected firepower. However, we would not have been physically able to do so. Four-man reconnaissance team. Only detecting and establishing the coordinates of the detected targets as accurately as possible. It was up to the forces and means of the “senior chief” to destroy the targets themselves (read - risks).

Technological direction

A special mention should be made of the technological direction of commercial intelligence work. We are talking about the need to study objects within the framework of benchmarking. Transfer of best practices, modernization and improvement of production and/or business processes already existing in the company.

It should be clarified that “best practices, processes and solutions” should be considered in the context of being better than what exists in one's own company. It is very likely that you should not chase the “champions” in the industry at all. You may be able to find what you need from other, less visible, market players. Do not ignore such opportunities.

I will not describe the process itself in detail. Benchmarking is described in sufficient detail on the Internet. In addition, some peculiarities of practical benchmarking can be found HERE.

I will limit myself to a general enumeration of “practical works” in this field:

1.    Study the process existing in own company;

Teach your team the process that requires modernization in your own company, through the full cycle of operation and from complete zero to completion of the production/commercial cycle.

2.    Search for organizations using similar processes;

Organize a search for companies/organizations that use similar or similar processes.

3.    Observation and measurement of parameters and comparison;

Track, measure and compare the process parameters of your company and the found organization.

4.    Understanding the suitability for your own business;

Determine the suitability of the process under study in your company's process chain.

5.    Identify opportunities for full or partial adaptation;

Identify opportunities to adapt the process under study in your company.

6.    Transfer and implementation.

Transferring, modernizing and implementing the process in your company can be done at a much lower cost than it might seem.

A detailed description of the benchmarking process from a business intelligence perspective can be found HERE.

Operational direction

Finally, the operational direction of commercial intelligence. This is set out quite comprehensively in the “practical guide”. The key difference with the content of the core business intelligence work is that in tactical and strategic intelligence, we are working on future risks that have not yet occurred. Here we have the ability to be proactive, proactive, before the risk itself has occurred.

Operational intelligence forces us to react to events that have already happened and have been left out of our attention. It is also a very important part of the job. Moreover, it very often requires a complete shift and focus of all intelligence efforts to operational targets. This is the only way that commercial intelligence can provide a company with the ability to respond, albeit reactively but more effectively.

It's still more effective compared to those who don't do it.

It is this volume and content of intelligence activity that keeps a company's business competitive.

 

NOT goodbye, continuation to follow...

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